History Shows January Front-runner Often Does Not Win Democratic Nomination
Less than half of Democratic presidential candidates who led in national Gallup Polls of Democratic voters in early January of 10 different election years since 1952 went on to win the nomination. In 6 out of 10 years, the front-runner in January stumbled or withdrew and a secondary candidate ultimately received the bid. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean leads in most national polls as the year 2004 begins, but the historical analysis suggests that his eventual ascension to the Democratic nomination is by no means assured.
Finally, some statistical data that I can use. Makes sense. Most folks don't pay attention until after Christmas. Others may have an early crush, but when it comes time to get hitched...You want the best.