How bad off are we?

I keep hearing about Democratic soul searching in the wake of what has been portrayed as an electoral disaster for the Dems. To an extent, this is needed and healthy. But the perspective strikes me as somewhat out of whack. Dems are said to be teetering on the brink of irrelevance. But why is that meme so strong right now?

Between 1968-1988, over six presidential campaigns, the Democratic party won one close race in 1976 after the elected Republican had resigned in disgrace. The average Dem electoral total over those six elections was only 113 measley votes.

By comparison, the Dems have won the popular vote 3 out of the last 4 Presidential races. In the one race we lost, the incumbent won by the smallest margin for sitting President since 1916. For those four races the Dem electoral vote average is 317. During these races, Republicans have not even come close to being competitive in NY and CA. CA used to be a pretty reliable red state.

We have work to do. We need to appeal more to our working class roots than we have been lately. We need to do better with hispanic voters than we did this time. We need to expand the party and get out our vote, but in looking back over the last 26 years, the trend over time is more positive than negative.

Just a thought.

Mandate my ass

Bushco wants media folks repeating their "mandate'" meme and we will hear it repeatedly as the Repugs hope it sticks.  I keep hearing how Bush won a clear majority, had a 3.5 million vote margin, was the first to win more than fifty percent since his dad, etc.  The victory is supposedly sweeping.  In fact, 1.5 million of Bush's margin came from Texas which the Repugs robocalled like crazy to boost the vote.  I'm sure that was done in other "safe" states, as well.

But Repugs just won the Senate seats one would guess they would win, given the states involved, except for Colorado and possibly Alaska.  Yes, they beat Daschle by 4 thousand votes in deep red SD after a barrage of media dollars attacking him.  Yes, Repugs picked up 4 out of 5 gerrymandered seats in Texas.  But there was not a real realignment.

But Kerry still was only 136,500 votes from being President.  According to my calculations that is about .001% of the total vote.  With only  182,500 well-placed additional votes, Kerry wins with 289 electoral votes.  That is only .00158% of the total votes cast.

Yes, it is disappointing.  Yes, we need to reassess, and learn the lessons of this campaign.  But Republicans do not have a lock on the Whitehouse by a long shot, no matter how the media wants that to be the story.

Fight the mandate meme

All of a sudden, we're hearing that a narrow victory is a mandate.  The press is already acting on cue.  Amazing how quickly we go from a "deeply divided electorate" to a "mandate".  It is 51%.  Less than 300 EVs.  That ain't no mandate.  Fight the notion.  Write LTEs.  Tell all your friends.  Call talk radio, no matter how small the audience.  Send emails to all media outlets and reporters.   Call them.  Contact the DNC.  Contact your congressmen and other elected officials.  There is no mandate.  We are the loyal opposition and we are about half of America.  We must be vocal.  We must be visible.  We must get a little bit bigger.

Fearless predictions

Okay, truthfully, I'm not totally without fear. Bad weather in Cleveland and Detroit, Repug fraud, and a possible Bushmen coup could prevent us from ending the nightmare that is Bushco, Inc., but short of such scenarios, I'm feeling pretty good. Well, good in the sense that we can finally get some sanity back in the WH to work on the incredible mess "the adults" have created. Victories are measured in the wake of Bushworld. So much for negative nuance and onto the predictions.

Kerry should win the popular vote by 2.5-5 percentage points. He will crack 50%. I can see scenarios in which Kerry wins with anywhere from 272 to 330+ electoral votes.

The Senate: Dem pickups in AK, IL, CO, KY (upset special); Repug pickup in SC.

Dream win: PA

NIghtmare loss: LA without a run-off